Trump trade war doubles Ford PC lead in Ontario election race: Poll

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OTTAWA — Impending American tariffs have given the Doug Ford PCs their highest approval ratings in nearly a year, new polling suggests.

The

Liaison Strategies poll

, commissioned by the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC,) found the Ontario Progressive Conservatives doubled their lead over the previous week, pulling a 43 per cent approval rating among decided and leaning voters compared to the Bonnie Crombie Liberals at 31 per cent between Jan. 31 and Feb. 1.

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The PCs were polled 39 per cent against a Liberal 33 per cent the week previous, the closest the two parties have come in a year.

“Ford focused his campaign on tariffs and the trade war from the very start and, for now, that is paying dividends with Ontarians,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.

Valentin said the Ontario Liberals have two bright spots — their lead in the City of Toronto and their dead heat in the province’s north.

Indeed, the 416 remains the Liberals’ trusty stronghold, where they’re pulling 33 per cent  support compared to the PC’s 27 per cent.

Toronto’s undecided vote, currently sitting at a quarter of respondents, could still play a factor.

Likewise, the province’s undecided vote dwells around the same range across all locations and demographics — PC support for the ever-important 18-34 age range currently sits at 29 per cent, just two points ahead of that cohort’s undecided vote.

Fortunes for the Marit Stiles NDP, however, continue to slide.

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“There is no good news in this report for the Ontario NDP, who continue to slide and are now down to 16 per cent,” Valentin said.

“In southcentral Ontario, Hamilton and Niagara, they are trailing the PCs by 13 points, despite the fact they have been first or a close second all throughout the year.”

NDP support has seen a precipitous decline since their late-summer high of 23 per cent, with this week’s 16 per cent representing their lowest ratings in a year.

The poll was conducted between Jan. 31 and Feb. 1 with 1,274 Ontario voters.

The poll’s margin of error is ± 2.74 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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